Kentucky Derby 152
field analysis
- Race date
- Sat May 2, 2026
- Post time
- 6:57 PM ET
- Distance
- 1¼ miles
- Purse
- $5,000,000
A wide-open field with no dominant favorite. Morning-line favorite Renegade (4-1) drew the historically challenging Post 1; Brad Cox saddles three. Use this page as research to inform your contest picks.
Complete 20-horse field
| Post | Horse | Trainer | Jockey | ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Renegade | Todd Pletcher | Irad Ortiz Jr. | 4-1 |
| 2 | Albus | Riley Mott | Manny Franco | 30-1 |
| 3 | Intrepido | Jeff Mullins | Hector Berrios | 50-1 |
| 4 | Litmus Test | Bob Baffert | Martin Garcia | 30-1 |
| 5 | Right to Party | Kenny McPeek | Chris Elliott | 30-1 |
| 6 | Commandment | Brad Cox | Luis Saez | 6-1 |
| 7 | Danon Bourbon | Manabu Ikezoe | Atsuya Nishimura | 20-1 |
| 8 | So Happy | Mark Glatt | Mike Smith | 15-1 |
| 9 | The Puma | Gustavo Delgado | Javier Castellano | 10-1 |
| 10 | Wonder Dean | Daisuke Takayanagi | Ryusei Sakai | 30-1 |
| 11 | Incredibolt | Riley Mott | Jaime Torres | 20-1 |
| 12 | Chief Wallabee | Bill Mott | Junior Alvarado | 8-1 |
| 13 | Silent Tactic | Steve Asmussen | Florent Geroux | 20-1 |
| 14 | Potente | Bob Baffert | Juan Hernandez | 15-1 |
| 15 | Emerging Market | Chad Brown | Flavien Prat | 15-1 |
| 16 | Pavlovian | Doug O'Neill | Edwin Maldonado | 30-1 |
| 17 | Six Speed | Bhupat Seemar | Brian Hernandez Jr. | 50-1 |
| 18 | Further Ado | Brad Cox | John Velazquez | 5-1 |
| 19 | Golden Tempo | Cherie DeVaux | Jose Ortiz | 30-1 |
| 20 | Fulleffort | Brad Cox | Tyler Gaffalione | 20-1 |
Will draw in if scratches occur before 9 AM Friday.
Speed figures: the numbers that matter
Every Kentucky Derby winner since 2000 has posted at least one 100+ Beyer Speed Figure. No winner has arrived with a Beyer above 105.
Leads field but exceeds 105 historical ceiling for Derby winners.
Meets 100+ threshold but figures declining across win streak.
Right at the historical threshold.
Steady improvement: 83 → 94 → 100.
Below 100+ despite being morning-line favorite.
Below threshold but elite Brisnet Late Pace (101).
Final fractions: who can finish?
Final fraction = last 1/8 mile in seconds. Reveals stamina + closing kick for the 1¼-mile distance.
Use the BRISNET Last Race Late Pace Rating and eliminate any horse not in the top ten — gets you most of the way there.
Pace scenario: setting up for closers
Projected early speed: Six Speed and Pavlovian are expected to contest the lead, creating a fast early pace.
In 2025, slow fractions (:22.81, :46.23, 1:10.78) let closers running 17th, 11th, 12th, and 19th sweep the superfecta. The last four Derbies have featured fast paces that set up late runners.
Six Speed (Post 17)
UAE Derby winner who led by daylight. Pure speed type — will ensure honest fractions. Post 17 has never produced a Derby winner since 1930.
Pavlovian (Post 16)
Set blistering Louisiana Derby fractions (:22.65, :46.23, 1:10.85). Added blinkers transformed him into a speed horse.
Beneficiaries of fast pace: Emerging Market (101 Late Pace), Further Ado (103 Late Pace), Albus, Fulleffort.
Top contenders
Post 18 · Brad Cox · John Velazquez
Case for
- ▸Highest speed figures in the field (106 Beyer, 105 Brisnet)
- ▸Crushed Blue Grass Stakes by 11 lengths
- ▸Elite pedigree: Gun Runner × Curlin × Bernardini (same broodmare sire as 2025 winner Sovereignty)
- ▸Hall of Fame jockey with 3 Derby wins
- ▸Post 18 allows traffic-free trip
Case against
- ▸106 Beyer exceeds historical winning ceiling (no winner above 105 since 2000)
- ▸Dominated at Keeneland but only 1-for-4 at other tracks
- ▸Final fraction of 13.00 is concerning for stamina
- ▸Improved 13 points from Tampa Bay Derby (regression risk)
Post 1 · Todd Pletcher · Irad Ortiz Jr.
Case for
- ▸Undefeated in 2026 (Sam F. Davis, Arkansas Derby)
- ▸Elite final fraction (11.84) — fastest in the field
- ▸Strong stamina pedigree (Into Mischief × Curlin × Bernardini)
- ▸Irad Ortiz Jr. leads North America in earnings ($9.8M in 2026)
Case against
- ▸Post 1 has only produced one winner since 1986 (Ferdinand)
- ▸Beyer of 98 is below the 100+ threshold
- ▸Pletcher is 0-for-13 with his last 13 Derby starters
- ▸Will face severe traffic from the rail in a 20-horse field
Post 6 · Brad Cox · Luis Saez
Case for
- ▸Undefeated in 4-race win streak
- ▸Won Florida Derby + Fountain of Youth (same path as 2025 winner Sovereignty)
- ▸Into Mischief has sired 3 Derby winners
- ▸Meets 100+ Beyer threshold (101)
- ▸Strong final fraction (12.30)
Case against
- ▸Both Grade 1 wins came down to the wire (not visually dominant)
- ▸Post 6 has second-lowest win rate at Churchill Downs
- ▸Beyer figures declining across win streak
- ▸Brad Cox only 1-of-10 starters hitting the board in last 3 Derbies
Post 9 · Gustavo Delgado · Javier Castellano
Case for
- ▸Beat Further Ado in Tampa Bay Derby
- ▸Consistent top-3 finishes (4: 1-2-1)
- ▸Meets 100+ Beyer threshold
- ▸Steady improvement pattern (83 → 94 → 100)
- ▸Strong final fraction (12.70)
- ▸Post 9 is historically productive
Case against
- ▸Sired by Essential Quality, who fell short in his own Derby bid
- ▸Finished behind Commandment in Florida Derby
Post 15 · Chad Brown · Flavien Prat
Case for
- ▸Undefeated in 2 starts
- ▸Strong Brisnet Late Pace rating (101) — elite closing ability
- ▸Consistent improvement in every race
- ▸Chad Brown overdue for first Derby win (0-for-9)
- ▸Flavien Prat is world-class rider
- ▸Good final fraction (12.50)
- ▸Best value at 15-1 odds
Case against
- ▸Beyer of 97 is below 100+ threshold
- ▸Only 2 career starts — extremely limited experience
- ▸No Derby winner has ever won with only 2 starts and none as a 2-year-old
Post 12 · Bill Mott · Junior Alvarado
Case for
- ▸Defending Derby-winning combination (Mott/Alvarado won 2025 with Sovereignty)
- ▸Elite pedigree (inbred to Secretariat, Northern Dancer, Damascus)
- ▸Late developer (didn't race as 2-year-old)
- ▸Post 12 ideal for stalker
- ▸Good final fraction (12.60)
Case against
- ▸Only 3 career starts — extremely inexperienced
- ▸Added blinkers for Derby (no winner in 50+ years has done this in final prep)
- ▸Finished behind Commandment and The Puma in Florida Derby
- ▸Cocks head to right in stretch (focus concerns)
Key handicapping trends
100+ Beyer threshold
Every Derby winner since 2000 has posted at least one 100+ Beyer. Only 4 horses meet that standard: Further Ado (106), Commandment (101), So Happy (100), The Puma (100).
Blinkers equipment change
No Derby winner in 50+ years has added or removed blinkers in their final prep. Affected: Chief Wallabee, Pavlovian, Right to Party, Danon Bourbon.
Post 1 risk
Only 1 winner since 1986 (Ferdinand). Renegade faces severe traffic from the rail.
Post 20 advantage
Highest win percentage (10.5%) of any post. Fulleffort benefits.
Wide posts winning
9 of last 15 Derby winners (60%) started from Post 13 or wider. 2025 winner Sovereignty broke from Post 16.
Betting strategy & value plays
The favorite's dilemma
Renegade (4-1) has the best final fraction but the worst post position and sub-threshold speed figures.
The speed-figure paradox
Further Ado (5-1) has the highest figures but exceeds the historical winning ceiling and has a concerning final fraction.
Best value play
Emerging Market (15-1) — undefeated, elite Late Pace (101), strong final fraction (12.50), Chad Brown / Flavien Prat. The 97 Beyer is below threshold, but his improvement pattern and closing ability in an expected fast pace make him a legitimate threat at generous odds.
Longshot with credentials
Danon Bourbon (20-1) — undefeated Japanese invader with elite American bloodlines (Maxfield × Tapit). Strong final fraction (12.60). If he handles American competition, massive overlay.
Trifecta construction
- Win: Further Ado, Commandment, The Puma
- Value: Emerging Market, Incredibolt
- Pace beneficiaries: Albus, Fulleffort (if pace is hot)
Superfecta and Pick 3-6 are not contest-eligible bet types.
Bottom line
The race will likely be decided by:
- How fast Six Speed and Pavlovian push the early pace
- Whether Renegade can overcome the rail position
- If Further Ado’s speed figures translate away from Keeneland
- Whether experience matters more than raw talent
Final assessment: this Derby rewards handicappers who look beyond the obvious. The winner may not be the horse with the highest speed figures or the lowest odds, but rather the horse who gets the perfect trip in a fast pace scenario while meeting the final fraction and late pace requirements.
Ready to lock in your picks?
Use this analysis to build your wagers + multi-race tickets.
Analysis date · April 27, 2026. Sources verified against kentuckyderby.com, NBC Sports, BloodHorse, Brisnet, secretariat.com, twinspires.com, racingdudes.com. AI-generated — verify before wagering. Play money only.